000
WTPZ43 KNHC 132043
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection
is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an
initial advisory intensity of 35 kt.  An upper trough to the west of
Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in
the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next
couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late
this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity.
After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler
waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin
to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily
weaken late in the forecast period.

Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad
mid-level ridge.  A general west to west-northwestward motion
should continue for the next several days. There was a notable
shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone
will move with a little slower forward motion than previously
indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a
slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower
and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of
the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto