000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and objective estimates. Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to the system's continued convective struggles. Going forward, a low shear and warm water environment with limited environmental instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the model consensus. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake