000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus.  The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake