000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Gil remains a strongly sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated
low-level center located near the western edge of a ragged-looking
convective mass.  Based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the
intensity estimate remains at 35 kt.  The shear is being produced
by large upper-level trough that lies near and to the north of the
storm, and the dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
persist for the next couple of days.  This, along with relatively
dry mid-tropospheric air of relative humidities near 50 to 60
percent, should cause Gil to weaken and then dissipate within 72
hours.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the model consensus.

The motion is estimated to be westward or 280/10 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of the cyclone
over the next few days.  This flow pattern should cause a continued
westward or slightly south of westward track until dissipation.
The official track prediction is very close to the previous NHC
forecast and also close to the corrected model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 14.9N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch