000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080834
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019

Cosme continues to gradually weaken over 23 to 24 degree C waters
and in a dry and stable atmospheric environment with about 10 to
15 kt of westerly shear. The depression now consists of scattered
mid- to high- level debris clouds over a low-level swirl, with a
small area of convection located nearly 200 n mi northeast the
system's center. A scatterometer pass at 0450 UTC showed peak winds
of 25 kt associated with Cosme's circulation. This intensity agrees
with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and ADT and will be
the depression's initial intensity for this advisory.

The unfavorable environmental conditions for Cosme will not improve
as the depression continues to move over cooler waters today. This
should prevent any significant amounts of deep convection from
developing near the system's center, and Cosme is expected to become
a remnant low at some point later on today.

The initial motion of Cosme is northwest at 8 kt. This general
motion will continue through today with a slowing in forward speed.
Thereafter, the remnant low will drift northwestward to
west-northwestward in the low-level flow until it dissipates.

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 19.8N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 20.4N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch