000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230838
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near
Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has
continued to deteriorate.  Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed
maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of
the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a
little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial
motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt.  This motion
should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's
circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the
Mexican state of Michoacan later today.  Once inland, the tiny
circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous
terrain.  A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for
continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood
Vicente will have dissipated by that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg