000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230249
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Although conventional satellite imagery is unimpressive tonight, a
pair of microwave passes indicate there is probably still a
low-level circulation remaining with Vicente.  The center is located
between the main convective band to the south, and sporadic cells
north of the center.  All of the intensity estimates that I have
suggest the intensity is no lower than 35 kt, so the initial wind
speed will stay 35 kt.  Continued northeasterly shear will very
likely cause Vicente to weaken soon, and this is the solution
presented by most of the guidance.  The new NHC track forecast shows
Vicente coming ashore as a tropical depression tomorrow over Mexico,
most similar to the GFS model.

Vicente is moving northwestward, or 320/11 kt.  The system should
move a little faster and to the right between the mid-level ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the
circulation of Willa.  The official track forecast is a bit east of
the previous one, in line with the latest guidance.  The 24-hour
position is simply a placeholder to get Vicente inland because the
cyclone will probably dissipate not long after it reaches land due
to the high terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.4N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake