000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221445
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating
that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended.  The
system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming
increasingly difficult to locate.  Radar imagery from Acapulco,
Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this
time.  The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and
TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little
generous.

Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the
cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing
steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone
dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance
showing little change in intensity until landfall.  Given the
current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be
the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the
primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and
the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system
begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
over Mexico.  As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the
ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then
north-northwest is expected.  The latest NHC forecast track is
similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,
and is near the tightly clustered model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto