000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past
several hours.  A burst of deep convection has developed near the
surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold
cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the
cyclone's circulation.  A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325
UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to
40 kt for this advisory.

Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly
shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the
UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon.  In fact, most
of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or
show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour
period as a depression.  Although the majority of the models support
dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a
tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the
forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy
rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which
could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within
southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf
of Mexico.  Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western
periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or
prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is a little slower than
the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State
Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 14.1N  99.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts