000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes
around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined
circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds
were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of
only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind
data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which
above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to
the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is
forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the
cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's
proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening
and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the
mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente
is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the
west-northwest  on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone
will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger
circulation.  Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor
forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward
shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 14.5N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 14.3N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 14.4N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart