000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl
producing intermittent bursts of deep convection.  We have expected
an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24
hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion
estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the
generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast
that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and
even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is
imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but
is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours,
based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente
is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much
larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the
HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a
significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente.
While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does
illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased
since earlier today.

The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on
earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size
of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in
intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity
guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds
over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and
interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and
eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the
intensity forecast in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 14.8N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 14.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 14.3N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 14.9N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky