000
WTPZ43 KNHC 201444
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to
reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data
show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the
thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the
circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial
intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for
intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with
land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29
degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land,
some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente
will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening
Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at
least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band
of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane
John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year.

Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose
of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand
westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west
to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone
reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest until it becomes absorbed.  It is interesting to note that
unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a
west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge,
increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next
2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 14.3N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 14.2N  94.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 13.5N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 13.3N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA

$$
Forecaster Avila