614 
WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Paul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone.  The
low-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of
deep convection.  The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Since the
cyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system
will likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt.  As the cyclone
becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow.
The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch