630 
WTPZ43 KNHC 100845
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to
the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection.  A 0448 UTC
ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt
winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered
to 35 kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone.  The Decay SHIPS
intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours
or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a
more stable thermodynamic environment.  Therefore, weakening is
forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN
consensus models.

The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically
this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward,
or 320/8 kt.  Paul should continue to move within the mid-level
steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then
a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone
moves within the low-level trades.  The NHC track forecast is an
update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts