213 
WTPZ43 KNHC 091442
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory.  Satellite
imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located
on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the
cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear.  The
advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.  Although the shear is forecast to relax
during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over
marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass.  Therefore only modest
strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a
leveling off of the intensity.  The official forecast is a little
below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical
guidance.

Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak
mid-level ridge over the next day or so.  Later in the forecast
period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to
turn toward the west-northwest.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch