441 
WTPZ43 KNHC 090843
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened.  The
cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half
of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east
of the center.  A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed
30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant.  Based on that data and
the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity
is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.

Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days
while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist
environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely
because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the
next day or so.  The opportunity for intensification should end in a
few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and
into a drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity forecast
is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the
model guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the
northwest than expected.  Smoothing through the fixes yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/7.   A continued northwestward motion
is expected during the next day or two.  After that time, Paul
should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge
to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period
when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The
NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in
the initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi