172 
WTPZ43 KNHC 102041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

It looks like Kristy may have peaked in intensity. The cloud tops
of the central dense overcast have warmed since 6 hours ago, and any
hints of an eye-like feature in visible imagery have disappeared.
The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise of all
available satellite estimates, which still vary widely. Kristy has
crossed the 26 C SST isotherm, and steady weakening from this point
is likely as the tropical storm moves over progressively colder
waters. All of the intensity guidance agrees on this solution, and
confidence in the forecast is high. The dynamical models generally
agree that cyclone will lose all deep convection by Sunday and
become a remnant low.

Kristy is moving due north, and the initial motion estimate is
360/7 kt. Kristy should continue to move generally northward for the
next 24 hours or so while it maintains at least some deep
convection. Beginning day 2, a turn toward the northwest, and
eventually west, will begin as the cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The guidance,
especially the GFS, has shifted southwestward again, but is at
least in a little better agreement than it was previously. The NHC
forecast has likewise been shifted substantially toward the
southwest by the end of the forecast period, and remains very close
to HCCA and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky