302 
WTPZ43 KNHC 100853
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy has become a little better organized since the last
advisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer
banding in the southern semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates
are in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests
winds are below hurricane strength.  Based on these data, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.  There is still some chance
that Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours.
After that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters
and a steady weakening is forecast.  The new intensity forecast,
which lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged
downward a little from the previous forecast, although it still
calls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h.

The initial motion is 005/7.  The track guidance has made a notable
westward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally
show less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John.
However, there is still a significant spread between the northward
tracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF.  The new
forecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but
it lies to the east of the various consensus models.  An additional
westward adjustment to the track may be required later if the
current model trends continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven