898 
WTPZ43 KNHC 091431
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with
Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the
cyclone.  The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON
value.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy
reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity model consensus.  A weakening trend is
likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to
become post-tropical later this weekend.

Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an
uncertain 345/4 kt.  There continues to be a lot of spread in the
track guidance models.  The GFS and its ensemble, along with the
HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy
being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast.
The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the
north and northeast as those other models.  Since John is weakening,
it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially
later in the forecast period.  For now, the official forecast is
shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as
shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch