882 
WTPZ43 KNHC 290235
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Gilma's structure has not changed much over the past six hours.
Deep convection remains limited to small, but frequent, bursts just
east of the depression's exposed low-level center.  The initial
intensity has been held at 30 kt, based primarily on continuity, but
this is also supported by the most recent Dvorak classification from
TAFB.  No change has been made to the official intensity forecast.
The wind shear, as measured in SHIPS diagnostic data from the GFS
and ECMWF, is already over 30 kt and is forecast to continue
increasing over the next day or two.  In addition, the tropical
cyclone will be moving through a progressively drier environment
during the next couple of days, which should also contribute to the
suppression of deep convection.  Gilma is therefore still forecast
to become a remnant low tomorrow, and then dissipate entirely by
early next week.

The depression is moving a little quicker than previously
anticipated, and the initial motion estimate is 285/12.  Aside from
the faster initial speed, there is no change to the reasoning
behind the track forecast.  Gilma is still expected to turn back
toward the west and slow its forward speed for the next
couple of days while being steered primarily by the low-level flow
associated with the subtropical ridge to the north.  The NHC track
forecast is very close to the various consensus models, and minimal
changes were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 16.1N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky