000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds,
and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the
north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT
data is available over Bud tonight.

The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to
increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja
California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to
continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than
indicated in the forecast.

Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward
at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and the southwestern U.S.  The southerly flow ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some
increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48
hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the
cyclone.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila