000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120242
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Bud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its
intensity.  On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more
distinct in infrared satellite imagery.  On the other hand, the
central dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the
convective cloud tops have been warming as well.  Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/102 kt while the objective ADT
peaked at 6.5/127 kt.  The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt as
a compromise of these values.

Bud appears to be going through a trochoidal oscillation, but the
longer-term motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 kt.  The
hurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near
the U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta, but with
the ridge directly to its north, Bud's forward speed is expected to
slow down to 4-5 kt for the next 48 hours.  After that time, a
developing mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will
cause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja
California Peninsula.  The track models are tightly clustered, with
the only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower
and to the west of the other models.  The NHC forecast is closest
to the TVCX multi-model consensus and not too different from the
previous forecast.

Since vertical shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days
or so and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest
limiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat
content.  Bud has reached an area where waters of 26C or warmer
only extend 20 meters or less below the ocean surface.  Upwelling
of colder water is likely due to the hurricane's expected slow
motion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick
weakening trend.  The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the
most dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains
Bud's intensity for another 24 hours or so before showing much
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is between these two
scenarios, with Bud expected to fall below hurricane intensity near
the 48-hour mark (late Wednesday).  Continued weakening is expected
as Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California
Peninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over
the Mexican state of Sonora by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 17.6N 107.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg