000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the
eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure.  An average of
TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from
UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt.  Bud still has the
opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12
hours or so before the environmental conditions become less
conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters
near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.  By then, Bud is
expected to be below hurricane strength.  The official intensity
forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which
weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual
decay.

Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud
continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical
ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once
Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36
hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then
northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is
not different from the previous one and is in the middle of
the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the
HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost
of the models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila