000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111439
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection
surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the
overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers
have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers
have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this
advisory.  Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength
during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions
become less conducive.  A faster weakening is expected to occur when
Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula.
By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength.  The
official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus
HCCA model, which has been performing well.

Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest
or 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered
by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and
the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern
edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn
north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California
peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one
and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila