000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud
seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has
recently become less distinct.  The intensity estimate of 90 kt is
based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT
estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher.  Bud should
remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today,
and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a
slow weakening trend thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is
a little above the latest model consensus.  Significantly cooler
waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce
Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land
area.

The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the
initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt.  A
weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States
is expected to persist for the next few days.  Bud is expected to
move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward
the north-northwest in 1-2 days.  Around that time, the steering
flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is
forecast to slow to 3-4 kt.  Later in the forecast period, the
ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little
faster toward the Baja peninsula.  The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track
guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on
data from the latest ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch