000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved
bands of deep convection developing around the center while the
upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from
all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5
supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt
winds in this advisory.

Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and
embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These
conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what
is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the
SHIPS model.  Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast
strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the
HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening
should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja
California peninsula.

Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The
cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery
of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and
northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western
portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the
northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and
toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in
remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the
confidence in the official forecast.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila