000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221431
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken.
Using a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current
intensity is set to 70 kt.  Continued weakening is likely as the
cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing
south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough
to the west of Kenneth.  The official intensity forecast is close to
the latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay
rapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in
48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here.

Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit
to the southwest of the mid-level center.  The initial motion is
now estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.  No
significant changes have been made to the track forecast or
reasoning.  Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge
associated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the
next few days.  Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward
through the break until later in the forecast period when the
shallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the
low-level flow.  The official track forecast follows the latest
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch