000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Satellite images suggest that Kenneth is gradually weakening.
Although the eye remains fairly distinct, the convection in the
eyewall is not quite as deep as it was earlier today.  An average of
the latest final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the
initial wind speed a little, to 105 kt.

Kenneth is now moving northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level
ridge to its northeast.  The hurricane is forecast to turn
north-northwestward on Tuesday when it moves into a pronounced
break in the ridge and it should continue in that general direction
for the remainder of the forecast period.  The models are in good
agreement, and little change has been made to the previous NHC track
forecast.  This forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The hurricane is nearing the 26 deg C isotherm, and it is expected
to cross into those cooler waters by tonight.  Cool waters, stable
air, and an increase in southerly wind shear should cause steady or
even rapid weakening of the system during the next few days.
Kenneth is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
sooner, when it will be over SSTs below 23 deg C and in an
environment of more than 30 kt of shear.  The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous one, and it is in best agreement
with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi