000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200838
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the
previous advisory.  The center remains embedded with a fairly
symmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of
an eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight.  Subjective and
objective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support
maintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt.

Kenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and
over warm water for another 24 to 36 hours.  This should result
in strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane
later today.  After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures
and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual
weakening.  Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear
should hasten Kenneth's demise and the system is expected to become
a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
SHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours,
but is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5.

Kenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours
and recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth's forward motion
has slowed to about 13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected
to move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the
next couple of days.  By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the
ridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward late in the period.  The early portion of
the track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily
due to a more southward initial position as noted by recent
microwave data.  After 72 h, the dynamical models have come
into a little better agreement and little change was required to
the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown