000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161436
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
 
SPIRAL BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HECTOR HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A BLEND OF A 0402 UTC AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE TAFB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.  HECTOR SHOULD DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY EARLIER...AS IT
TRAVERSES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/4 KT.  A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 19.7N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 20.1N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 21.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS