000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160245
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012
 
THE CENTER OF HECTOR REMAINS EXPOSED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A SINGLE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.
THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HIGH...AND HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...
HECTOR IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LATEST FIXES
SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/5. THE FORECAST REASONING IS
OTHERWISE UNCHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...AND
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 18.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 20.8N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 21.7N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 22.5N 116.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 23.5N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY