000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151437
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HECTOR REMAINS A SHEARED
CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 37 KT.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS FARTHER
NORTH...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/4.  A COMBINATION
OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

HECTOR IS OVER A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TONGUE OF 27C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD REACH 26C
SSTS IN ABOUT 12 HR AND 24C SSTS BY 48 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HECTOR TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24
HR AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 19.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 21.3N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN