000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150833
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012
 
AN 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HECTOR IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS
A TROPICAL STORM WITH A FEW 30-35 KT WIND BARBS NOTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CONVECTIVE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE AS WELL.  HECTOR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY 15-20 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
SSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT RECENT
MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 270/2 KT.  HECTOR IS TRAPPED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
WELL TO ITS EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST THAT HECTOR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT
SLOWLY...LATER TODAY.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 17.9N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 18.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 20.6N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG