000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150234
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE CENTER
OF HECTOR EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN.  AS THIS OCCURRED...THE CYCLONE MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS THAT
HECTOR HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS.  THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT HECTOR WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY
SOON AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
OVER MEXICO.  AS HECTOR WEAKENS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL
POSITION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 17.2N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 19.4N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN