000
WTPZ43 KNHC 142037
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
 
AFTER AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON
TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HECTOR FROM STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND
IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION
WAXES AND WANES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THAT OCCURS...
HECTOR WILL BE A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 17.6N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.9N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 19.6N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 20.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART