000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141434 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI