000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140834
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IT IS STILL
DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  HECTOR HAS ANOTHER 48 HOURS
OR SO OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C...BUT THE STORM WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DRIER AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW BY DAY 3.  SOME OF THE INTENSITY MODELS HINT THAT IT COULD
OCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
 
MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
DUE WEST...AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5 KT.  AS A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
HECTOR TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY.  THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL HECTOR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TURN BACK TO THE
WEST BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT
HAD BEEN...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS...ECMWF...
AND HFIP CONSENSUS TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 17.9N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 18.1N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 18.4N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.1N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG