000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND BEEN PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BECAUSE A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS TIME...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS..HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. AS THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT IT WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER OR 270/5 KT. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT A SHARPER AND FASTER NORTHWARD TURN IN 36-48 HOURS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TV15. THE NEW FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.0N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.0N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN