000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131441
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT REMAINS DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500
UTC SUGGESTED THAT HECTOR COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
ESTIMATED EARLIER...BUT SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
SINCE THEN...HECTOR IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK SHEAR-PATTERN
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING HECTOR GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS HECTOR WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
HECTOR IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 18.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 18.1N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 18.3N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 18.6N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 19.5N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI