000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012 HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE BLASTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IS QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES FROM TAFB. DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS HECTOR DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. HOWEVER... UNLESS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY...HECTOR COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. SINCE THE SUN HAS SET OVER THE AREA...THE CENTER IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SOCORRO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER RECENTLY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE LOWER-LAYER FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 18.1N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.1N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 18.6N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH