000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130239
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HECTOR...LEAVING IT EXPOSED. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 995 MB AND 25 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LEFT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE OR
STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SINCE SSTS ONLY
GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS THINKING IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...
IF NOT SOONER.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS PROVIDED A RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 270/5. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING HECTOR TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION...AND LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS
AIDS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 18.1N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.1N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 18.2N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 18.3N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 18.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 19.1N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 19.8N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE