000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112042
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...THE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED A
BIT...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 30 KT.  THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR NOW...BUT RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO AND AN OFFSHORE SHIP SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 280/9 KT.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OFF THE U.S.
WEST COAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND BY
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST.  SINCE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONGER STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT
PULLS THE STORM FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15 AND IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE ABOUT 28-29C AND MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...NONE OF WHICH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ON THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 17.7N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 17.9N 110.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 17.6N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 17.3N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG