000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111653
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. 

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.  THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY.
THEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD
OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA