000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170235
TCDEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
 
THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS STILL NOTICEABLE
IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
CENTER IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS
ORGANIZATION.  CARLOTTA HAS THEREFORE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT AND SHOULD KEEP THIS MOTION
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT ANY LEFTOVER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
MERGE WITH OR BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER CIRCULATION FARTHER WEST OVER
THE PACIFIC IN A FEW DAYS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.  EVEN THOUGH CARLOTTA
SHOULD DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 18.1N 100.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/1200Z 18.2N 100.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG