000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160240 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE DISTINCT EYE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME OBSCURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE EYE OR THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CARLOTTA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR LESS. HOWEVER...ONE HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS...AND IF THE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE COAST INSTEAD...CARLOTTA WOULD NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS INDICATED. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MAINTAINED WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO AT THIS TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TURN CARLOTTA EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY IN THE LONG RANGE. EVEN IF CARLOTTA BECOMES A WEAK SYSTEM...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.9N 97.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 17.0N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA