000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152051 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS. THE LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN 12-24 HR. IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO DISRUPT THE STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES. THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.8N 96.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.7N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 98.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 16.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN