000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151438 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST 36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST 72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST 96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN