000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012 CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT... PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.5N 94.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 97.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA