000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250236
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 PM PST THU NOV 24 2011
 
THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING.  A FEW RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND ELONGATED...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45-55 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 41 KT.
THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
KENNETH IS NOW MOVING OVER A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING COLD TONGUE OF
WATER BETWEEN 25 AND 26C...AND THIS COLDER WATER SHOULD MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING
DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  KENNETH IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WITH DISSIPATION POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY.  NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
WERE REQUIRED IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/8 KT.  A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH...AND THIS HAS
TEMPORARILY SLOWED THE CYCLONE DOWN.  HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KENNETH SHOULD TAKE ON AN ACCELERATED WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH ITS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION PHASES.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS FASTER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR
THE TVCE CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 13.4N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 13.4N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 13.4N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 13.4N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 13.6N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG