000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242038
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST THU NOV 24 2011
 
KENNETH IS WEAKENING. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS STEADILY BEEN DECREASING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN LOSING
DEFINITION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 1638 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING
TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT
BASED UPON FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF KENNETH SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE...IF NOT ACCELERATE. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE...AND WATERS COOL TO BELOW 26C DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SOONER AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A FASTER WEAKENING
RATE...AND IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
KENNETH CONTINUING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
SHALLOWER...ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME COURSE AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION...STEERED ENTIRELY BE THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND IS A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 13.5N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 13.5N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 13.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 13.7N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 13.7N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN